Earthquakes: A Continous Threat in Western South America

Photo: Caribbean Tectonics

More than one-quarter of the world's “Great” magnitude 8 or larger earthquakes have occurred in western South America, including the 1960 magnitude 9.5 Chile megathrust earthquake, the largest earthquake ever recorded. An array of earthquakes are generated by Nazca-South American plate boundary and intra-plate tectonic processes. This animation explores three major mechanisms for earthquakes due to the interaction of the plates:    Incorporated Research Institutes for Seismology (IRIS)

The western countries of South America sit on the Nazca Plate, an oceanic tectonic plate in the southeastern Pacific Ocean. Over the last half-century, this geological feature has caused major headaches from Colombia to Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, and Chile. Over the last 10 years, LADB has covered some of the earthquakes in the region, including recovery efforts and political implications. Here are some of the headlines. We included analysis from the Incorporated Research Institutes for Seismology (IRIS).

September 21, 2007: Peru: Recovery Fund Set Up After 8.0 Magnitude Earthquake Pounds Region South Of Capital, Kills Over 500 
A severe 8.0-magnitude earthquake rocked the coastal area of southern Peru on Aug. 15, killing at least 540 people and leaving about 80,000 Peruvians homeless. The cities of Pisco and Ica were badly hit, along with the surrounding regions along a 130-km stretch of the Pacific coast. Casualty numbers could have been massive if Lima where a huge portion of the country's population lives had been more directly shaken.
Iris Analysis

March  12, 2010:  Massive Earthquake Strikes Just Ahead Of Presidential Handoff
As Chile digs out from the massive Feb. 27 earthquake, the largest to hit the South American country in a half century, political divisions exacerbated by the recent elections continue to lurk just below the surface. The seemingly interminable quake, which lasted more than two horrifying minutes, struck in the wee hours of Saturday morning and affected a huge swath of the country from north of Santiago to as far south as Puerto Montt in the Lakes Region. For the millions of Chileans shaken awake by the monster magnitude 8.8 event, it was in all senses a living nightmare.
Iris Analysis

March 26, 2010:  Sebastián Piñera Takes Helm Of Quake-rattled Nation 
Two decades of leadership by the center-left Concertacion coalition came to an official end March 11, when Sebastian Pinera, a conservative billionaire businessman and onetime senator, donned Chile's presidential sash for the first time in what turned out to be literally an earth-shaking event. Just minutes before the start of the ceremony, held in the Congress building in Valparaiso, a series of powerful tremors rippled through central Chile, putting a natural exclamation point on a transfer of power already loaded with historic significance. Not only did Pinera's inauguration swing the country to the right for the first time since the end of the military dictatorship of Gen. Augusto Pinochet (1973-1990), it also came less than two weeks after Chile suffered its worst natural disaster in half a century: a magnitude 8.8 earthquake that struck Feb. 27.
  
December 10, 2010:  Chile President and Opposition Trade Barbs while Earthquake Victims Wait for Solutions 
Nine months after one of the strongest earthquakes in recorded history jolted central Chile, the disaster has returned to the national forefront as fodder in a mudslinging match between the country’s increasingly popular President Sebastián Piñera and a weakened opposition eager to find a chink in the first-year leader’s political armor. The massive magnitude 8.8 quake and subsequent tsunami struck Feb. 27, less than two weeks before Piñera took office. The back-to-back disasters killed 521 people and caused an estimated US$30 billion in damages, destroying homes, bridges, and other structures throughout Chile’s central regions.

January 2, 2011 Magnitude 7.1 Earthquake in Central Chile  (IRIS)

September 30, 2012 Magnitude 7.3 Colombia (IRIS)

October 9, 2015: Chile Slammed but Not Leveled by Third Major Earthquake in Five Years 
As cleanup efforts continue following last month’s major earthquake off the coast of Illapel, in the Coquimbo Region of northcentral Chile, more than a few observers are marveling at how relatively well the country fared—all things considered. The disaster that unfolded on the evening of Sept. 16, just ahead of Chile’s annual Fiestas Patrias (Independence Day) celebrations, was both horrifying and tragic. The powerful quake ruined thousands of dwellings, prompted a mass evacuation along the country’s lengthy coastline—parts of which were inundated by tsunami waves—and killed 15, according to the Ministerio del Interior y Seguridad Pública's Oficina Nacional de Emergencia (ONEMI). It also triggered a barrage of aftershocks (more than 800 to date), rattling already frayed nerves not only in Norte Chico, as the hardest-hit area is known, but in the populous Metropolitan (Santiago) and Valparaíso Regions, as well.
Iris Analysis

November 24, 2015 Iris Reports Earthquakes Along Brazil-Peru Border
 
May 20, 2016:  Ecuador Accused of Boosting Taxes to Cover Costs of Earthquake Damage 
 Ecuador has a pro-forma 2016 budget of approximately US$25 billion and a fiscal shortfall of some $US8 billion, caused mainly by a dependence on oil exports that have suffered falling prices in the last two years. Now, the government has decided to deal with the economic crisis by creating new and unexpected taxes, arguing that more funds are needed to face the damage caused by the April 16 earthquake on its northern coast... Following the earthquake, Ecuadorans showed their solidarity in many ways: various public and private entities, especially municipalities, managed to collect major quantities of food, clothing, water, and even money. They organized to take the supplies to the earthquake areas, but they came up against government officials who decided the government would take charge of distribution.
Iris Analysis

Earthquake Cluster Ruins Homes, Rattles Nerves In Western Nicaragua

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Article from NotiCen, May 8

Nicaragua remains on "red alert" following a cluster of pre-Easter earthquakes that killed two people, damaged nearly 5,000 homes, some completely, opened up a 20 km-long crack in the earth, and may have even caused an odd drop in the water level of Lago Xolotlán, also known as Lake Managua. The first of the quakes, measuring magnitude 6.2 on the Richter scale, struck on the evening of April 10. Hardest hit was the town of Nagarote, some 50 km northwest of Managua, the Nicaraguan capital, where damage was also reported. The quake leveled approximately 300 Nagarote dwellings and left another 600 uninhabitable. Nerve-rattling tremors have continued to shake the area. A magnitude 5.1 jolt struck on the night of April 13. Authorities registered another sizeable shake (4.6) on the morning of April 15. Similar magnitude events occurred on April 18 (4.3), April 19 (4.4), April 21 (4.3), April 23 (4.4), April 26 (4.3), and May 1 (4.7). Benjamin Witte-Lebhar Read More

Ecuador to Drill for Oil in Formerly Protected Area; Suspect in El Salvador Jesuit Massacre Jailed in U.S.; Twin Storms Batter Mexico

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Articles in SourceMex, NotiCen and NotiSur for September 25-27

Did the World Fail Ecuador?

The Ecuadoran government has decided to allow oil drilling in Yasuní, a national park in the country’s Amazonian region. The decision follows six years of frustrated efforts to secure financial contributions from the international community in exchange for leaving the oil in the ground The government blames the plan’s failure on a lack of international cooperation. Some social sectors, however, say the government itself is responsible. They plan to defend the intangible area by organizing a popular referendum and by taking legal actions that could force the government to halt oil operations. -Luis Ángel Saavedra   Read More

Rio Protests Disappearance of Poor Favela Resident

The disappearance of Amarildo de Souza, a 43-year-old construction worker, two months ago exemplifies the ongoing political repression Brazilians face daily. Authorities claimed they released De Souza immediately after police mistakenly picked him up as a suspected drug dealer. De Souza, however, never reached work or returned home. After a Unidade de Policia Pacificadora (UPP) patrol detained him as he left his home in the Rio de Janeiro favela of Rocinha on July 14, he has not been heard from or seen again.In the last seven years--between January 2007 and May 2013--34,681 people have disappeared in Rio de Janeiro, according to the Movimento Rio de Paz, a humanitarian organization that cited official statistics from the Instituto de Segurança Pública (ISP). The organization says that 80% of the "disappeared" are from the favelas. -Andrés Gaudín Read More

Salvadoran 'Jesuit-Massacre' Suspect Jailed in U.S. For Immigration Violations

A Salvadoran man implicated in one of his country’s highest-profile human rights atrocities is headed to jail--albeit not in El Salvador, and not, technically speaking, because of numerous extrajudicial killings allegedly committed under his command. In late August, a federal judge in the US state of Massachusetts ordered Inocente Orlando Montano, 71, to spend 21 months in prison for immigration violations. Montano, an Army colonel and later vice minister of public security during El Salvador’s dozen-year civil war (1980-1992), is expected to begin his sentence on Oct. 11. -Benjamin Witte-Lebhar  Read More

Severe Storms Hit Mexico From Both Coasts, Causing Severe Damage in Much of the Country

The effect of climate change and decades of corruption--poor urban planning, shoddy home construction, and a lack of zoning regulations--combined to create a recipe for misery in Mexico in mid-September. Two tropical systems—the remnants of Hurricane Ingrid along the Gulf of Mexico and Tropical Storm Manuel on the West Coast--converged in Mexico during the weekend of Sept. 14-15, causing significant property and agricultural damage and forcing hundreds of thousands of people from their homes. Dozens of people were reported dead or missing, and some entire communities were buried by mudslides. This was the first time in 50 years that major storms hit the Gulf of Mexico and the country’s Pacific coast simultaneously. -Carlos Navarro  Read More

Dominican Republic Hit by Corruption Scandals

On July 30, Dominicans took to the streets bearing placards to protest against corrupt actions purportedly committed by members of the administration of President Danilo Medina, some of whom also served under the administration of his predecessor ex-President Leonel Fernández (1996-2000, 2004-2012). This has not been the only public demonstration against corruption. In August, Dominicans again took part in a series of anti-corruption activities. The Paren Eso (Stop That) campaign was launched by the Red Nacional de Acción Juvenil (RNAJ) and has been backed by the following organizations: Justicia Fiscal, Participación Ciudanana, Juventud Caribe, Articulación Nacional Campesina, Ciudad Alternativa, La Multitud, Alianza Dominicana contra la Corrupción, Foro por la Transparencia y el Desarrollo de San Cristóbal, and Juventud Alianza País. -Crosby Girón   Read More

Dragon Mart Project Back on Track After State Supreme Court Orders Local Authorities to Grant Construction Permit

The huge megaproject sponsored by the Chinese government in Quintana Roo state is back on track after receiving a favorable court ruling that overrode strong opposition from the municipal government of Benito Juárez, which includes the resort of Cancún. The Dragon Mart project has been proposed for a 120,000-square meter site in the community of Puerto Morelos, just outside Cancún and within the borders of Benito Juárez. The project received a setback in April of this year, when authorities in Benito Juárez denied a building permit for the project because of environmental concerns about the high-density project In late August, the Quintana Roo Supreme Court (Tribunal Superior de Justicia del Estado de Quintana Roo) said the municipality’s decision violated the state’s constitution and ordered Benito Juárez officials to award the construction permit. -Carlos Navarro Read More

Femicides in Ecuador; Assassination Attempt Thwarted in Mexico; 'Impunity' in El Salvador Amnesty Law

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Articles in SourceMex, NotiCen and NotiSur for April 10-12

Operación Cóndor Trial in Argentina Has Far-Reaching Implications

Four decades after the events in question, a trial for crimes against humanity began on March 5 in the Argentine capital Buenos Aires that is perhaps the most important in history, in the opinion of Miguel Ángel Osorio. Osorio is the federal prosecutor in the trial of those who carried out Operación Cóndor, the coordinated repression by the civilian-military regimes in the Southern Cone in the 1970s . The trial for the cross-border repression will implicate the dictators of Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay. It gathers and unites portions of various processes opened between 2008 and 2012 and includes the cases of 106 victims of Operación Cóndor. -Andrés Gaudín   Read More


"Total Impunity" In El Salvador Under Amnesty Law; Truth Commission Turn 20

Tributes held in late March to slain Salvadoran Archbishop Óscar Romero (1917-1980) capped a month of poignant, civil-war-related anniversaries in El Salvador, which remains deeply divided regarding the dark legacy of its dozen-year internal conflict (1980-1992). -Benjamin Witte-Lebhar   Read More


The Danger of Being a Woman in Ecuador

Femicide--the murder of a woman for being a woman and where sexual, domestic, or workplace violence can be determined--remains a major problem in Ecuador. A report from Comisión de Transición Hacia el Consejo Nacional de las Mujeres y la Igualdad de Género found that 77% of the murders of women in four cities in the country involved femicide. Of the 170 deaths of women reported in 2012 in Guayaquil, Esmeraldas, Cuenca, and Portoviejo, 80 were murders, and 62 had signs consistent with femicide. And a separate investigation by the Observatorio Metropolitano de Seguridad Ciudadana in Quito found that 21 cases of femicide were reported in the capital city of Quito in 2012 and 28 cases were reported in 2011. -Luis Ángel Saavedra    Read More

U.N. Concern Runs High on Haiti's Urgent Need to Establish Rule of Law and Hold Much-Delayed Senate Election

Michel Forst, until last month--and for the previous five years--the UN-appointed independent expert on Haiti's human rights situation, and Nigel Fisher, as of February the head of the UN Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH), coincide on their concerns regarding the situation in this poverty-stricken, French-speaking Caribbean island nation. They share a very pessimistic view of Haiti as a country not ready to face its many and sizable challenges. On Feb. 7, Forst submitted his final, six-chapter, 21-page report, emphasizing the critical importance of establishing the rule of law in Haiti. George Rodríguez   Read More

Authorities Thwart Assassination Attempt against Federal Senator, Deputy from Zacatecas

In early April, Mexico's Centro de Investigación en Seguridad Nacional (CISEN), thwarted an assassination plot against two prominent center-left politicians from Zacatecas, Deputy Ricardo Monreal Ávila of the Movimiento Ciudadano (MC) and his brother Sen. David Monreal Ávila of the Partido del Trabajo (PT). Investigators s aid the would-be killers might have been hired by Zacatecas businessman Arturo Guardado Méndez, who appeared to have a personal vendetta against the Monreal brothers..  -Carlos Navarro   Read More

Mexico Facing Severe Drought Again in 2013

With Mexico facing severe drought conditions again this year, the federal government has announced stringent conservation measures to preserve already tight water supplies, particularly in a large area just south of the border with the US. Estimates released by the Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (SEMARNAT) and the Confederación Nacional Campesina (CNC) indicate reservoirs in northern Mexico have fallen to between 25% and 30% of capacity because of extremely low precipitation for an extended period. The situation is most dire in the northern and central states of Sonora, Chihuahua, Durango, Zacatecas, Coahuila, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosí, and Nuevo León, but even some southern states like Oaxaca and Guerrero are facing drought conditions.  -Carlos Navarro   Read More

Parguay's Upcoming Election: Mexico Telecom Reform; Nicaragua Gold Mining Controversy

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Articles in SourceMex, NotiCen, and NotiSur for March 27-29

Lima Mayor Wins Partial Victory in Recall Referendum

Mayor Susana Villarán, the first woman to govern Peru's capital city, emerged victorious from a March 17 recall referendum, but several members of her coalition on the metropolitan council were ousted by the voters. About 82% of eligible voters participated in the recall of Villarán and 39 council members. Preliminary results show that 21 of those councilors will be recalled, most of them from the leftist coalition Fuerza Social (FS).     Elsa Chanduví Jaña    Read More

UN Rebuts Allegations Its Nepalese Blue Helmets Brought Cholera to Haiti

Despite the dire poverty of its population, Haiti had not been hit by cholera until nine months after the January 2010 earthquake ravaged this French-speaking Caribbean island nation. The outbreak has since killed some 8,000 people and affected hundreds of thousands more, dramatic figures that add to the 230,000-300,000 killed by the quake, which also left around 1.5 million homeless. About 300,000 are still lodged in tent towns in this country of 9.1 million people--described as the poorest in the Americas--where daily income for 78% is less than US$2       George Rodríguez    Read More 

Chamber of Deputies Approves Comprehensive Reforms to Telecommunications Sector

The Chamber of Deputies set in motion major reforms to Mexico’s telecommunications and media industries with the overwhelming approval of a version of the Telecommunications Reform Law proposed by President Enrique Peña Nieto. The measure, approved by a 393-98 vote, still requires approval by two-thirds of the Senate because at least part of the initiative requires amendments to Mexico’s Constitution. The Senate, which will consider the measure after the Mexican Congress returns from the Easter recess, is likely to approve the reforms, but only after extensive debate.  -Carlos Navarro  Read More

Nicaraguan Gold Rush Spells Profits, Protests, And Police Repression

A recent police crackdown on protesting guiriseros (artisan miners) in the central Nicaraguan town of Santo Domingo has raised new questions about the government’s "come-on-down" approach to foreign gold-mining firms, which have been raking in riches of late thanks to increased production and soaring prices. Early on the morning of Feb. 9, several hundred anti-riot police confronted a group of guiriseros at a roadblock the latter had erected months earlier at the entrance of Santo Domingo, roughly 190 km east of Managua. The artisan miners had been using the barrier to block the passage of vehicles and equipment owned by Canadian mining company B2Gold, which--through the acquisition of new government concessions--has expanded operations in recent years and begun exerting control of areas traditionally mined by guiriseros.     Benjamin Witte-Lebhar  Read More

Paraguay's Partido Colorado Likely to Return to Power in Upcoming Elections

On April 21, ten months after the June 22, 2012, coup that toppled democratically elected President Fernando Lugo and installed the de facto government of Federico Franco (NotiSur, July 13, 2012), Paraguayans will return to the ballot boxes. They will do so with the certainty that the Partido Colorado (Asociación Nacional Republicana, PC), in power from 1947 to 2008, including throughout the dictatorship of Gen. Alfredo Stroessner (1954-1989), will return to power and that the new president will be Horacio Cartes. Cartes is a powerful businessman with no political past but with alleged links to the smuggling, drug trafficking, and laundering money of the mafias. Moreover, this will be the first time in his life that the 56-year-old Cartes will vote.    Andrés Gaudín Read More

Despite Six-Month Investigation, Mexican Authorities Have Not Determined Motive for August 2012 Attack on U.S. Diplomatic Vehicle

The case involving the attempted murder of two members of the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and a Mexican Navy captain in Morelos state last summer remains only partially resolved despite intensive investigations conducted by the Procuraduría General de la República (PGR) during the past six months. The armored sports utility vehicle came under attack as it traveled on a dirt road to a military installation in Morelos state. Attorney General Jesús Murillo Karam confirmed that 14 assailants who participated in the attack were taken into custody, but investigators have not been able to determine a motive.  Carlos Navarro Read More

El Salvador Swamped By Billion-Dollar Deluge

SSN: 1089-1560
LADB Article ID: 78403
Category/Department: El Salvador
Date: 2011-11-03
By: Benjamin Witte-Lebhar

The devastating tropical depression that pounded Central America for 10 days last month will not go down as the deadliest act of Mother Nature to strike disaster-prone El Salvador. But, when all is said and done, tropical storm 12-E, as it was officially called, is likely to be one of the costliest.

The massive storm rolled in off the Pacific on Oct. 9 and, in the next week and a half, caused massive flooding and killed more than 100 along the isthmus. Hardest hit was El Salvador, where 34 people died—mostly from mudslides. Flooding also destroyed crops, washed out bridges and roads, and damaged thousands of homes, directly affecting some 300,000 people, according to the UN.

Salvadoran President Mauricio Funes estimates that total losses from the deadly storm could reach US$1.5 billion, or 5% of GDP. "The damages and losses from this phenomenon vary from country to country, but, in the case of El Salvador, this is the worst disaster in recent years," Funes told his Central American counterparts during a "minisummit" held Oct. 25 in San Salvador. Also in attendance were Presidents Álvaro Colom of Guatemala, Laura Chinchilla of Costa Rica, and Porfirio Lobo from Honduras.

El Salvador has seen its share of deadly storms before. In 1998 the monstrous Hurricane Mitch tore its way through Central America, killing more than 10,000 people (NotiCen, Nov. 12, 1998). Compared with some of its neighbors, El Salvador fared relatively well in that storm. Still, Mitch killed more than 200 Salvadorans and, according to the UN’s Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), caused an estimated US$262 million in damages in the tiny country (NotiCen, Jan. 8, 1999).

Six years ago more than 1,600 Central Americans were killed by another major hurricane, Hurricane Stan, which caused nearly US$4 billion in damages across the isthmus (NotiCen, Oct. 6, 2005). Hardest hit was Guatemala. In El Salvador, the storm killed roughly 70 people and caused approximately US$112 million in damages.

If President Funes’ damages estimate is accurate, 12-E could end up costing the country far more than Mitch and Stan combined. That is because, while the tropical depression may not have delivered hurricane-force winds, it lingered longer—and dumped even more rain—than did Mitch or Stan. Mitch, the previous record holder, delivered an accumulated 34 inches (nearly three feet) of rainwater. 12-E nearly doubled that, dropping 60 inches during the course of a week and a half, according to Environment Minister Hernán Rosa Chávez.

"As of now, we’ve estimated at US$650 million the total losses in direct damages suffered. This corresponds more or less to about 3% of GDP," said President Funes. "However, it’s still premature to offer an exact figure. Once we’ve counted all the indirect damage—in infrastructure and production—this amount could rise to between 4% and 5% of GDP, which would put it in line with the first damage estimates put forth by the United Nations."

Food supply and health risks

Of particular concern is the effect the flooding had on crops. By some estimates, the rains destroyed 40% of El Salvador’s harvest. That includes valuable export crops like coffee as well as vital domestic crops like corn and beans. Already the losses have caused prices for those basic items to rise significantly. In the coming months, that will mean extra costs for those who can afford it and hunger for those who cannot.

"Before it started raining the prices were lower," Francisco Orti, a market vendor in San Salvador, told the BBC. "I would buy corn for US$14 per 100 kg. Now it costs US$25. Yes, prices have gone up."

"Before it started raining the prices were lower," Francisco Orti, a market vendor in San Salvador, told the BBC. "I would buy corn for US$14 per 100 kg. Now it costs US$25. Yes, prices have gone up."

Authorities are also apprehensive about public hygiene. More than 50,000 Salvadorans are still packed in emergency shelters. And, as ironic as it may sound considering the more than five feet of rain the country just received, some areas are lacking fresh water. El Salvador’s Ministerio de Salud (MINSAL) reports that flooding destroyed more than 1,800 wells and damaged and/or polluted 8,300 others. The rains also destroyed nearly 7,000 outdoor toilets and flooded some 22,000 others, mostly in rural areas.

"This is a complicated situation that ought to be a priority in order to prevent the outbreak of diseases in the areas that lost wells and where people don’t have anywhere to deposit their human waste," said Eduardo Espinoza, MINSAL’s vice minister.

Some money has come in from international donors. The UN promised to come up with US$15.7 million to help fund immediate relief efforts. The US government donated US$50,000 to help El Salvador’s emergency services cover fuel costs. And Taiwan and Spain have each sent aid as well, US$300,000 and US$500,000, respectively.

The Salvadoran government was no doubt hoping first lady Vanda Pignato’s trip to New York City last week would attract additional aid. The Brazilian-born Pignato, who also serves as El Salvador’s secretary for social inclusion, met personally with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and with former US President Bill Clinton, who heads the William J. Clinton Foundation, a charitable organization.

But even a hefty donation by the former US president is unlikely to meet all of El Salvador’s post-storm needs. Nor will it do much to mitigate the country’s permanent vulnerability to natural disasters of this kind. 12-E, after all, may be the costliest recent disaster in El Salvador, but it is by no means an isolated case. Nor will it be the last act of Mother Nature compelling Salvadoran authorities, hat-in-hand, to once again turn to the international community for help.

"The mayor of San Julián said something very revealing this week: 'The world stopped noticing how screwed we are.' What’s certain about this situation is that it’s very recurrent. The countries that tend to help us are sick of doing so," columnist Marvin Aguilar wrote in a recent issue of La Página.

A question of vulnerability

ECLAC estimates that, between 1998 and 2008, nearly a quarter of Latin America’s natural-disaster-related deaths occurred in Central America, home to just 7% of the region’s population. El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras are among the world’s 10-most-vulnerable countries, according to ECLAC.

Part of the problem is geography. An isthmus that delicately divides two of the world’s great oceans, the area is prone to large tropical storms—from both sides. El Salvador and its neighbors are also highly seismic countries. Dotted with volcanoes, they experience frequent—and sometimes deadly—earthquakes.

Part of the problem is geography. An isthmus that delicately divides two of the world’s great oceans, the area is prone to large tropical storms—from both sides. El Salvador and its neighbors are also highly seismic countries. Dotted with volcanoes, they experience frequent—and sometimes deadly—earthquakes.

Climate-change scientists predict that rising global temperatures will make Central America more vulnerable still. For many observers, last month’s 12-E is evidence that global weather patterns are already shifting. Calling the deluge "unprecedented," Environment Minister Rosa Chávez said El Salvador "marks a point where climate change is erupting."

But El Salvador’s vulnerability is not purely a matter of being in the wrong place or, as climate scientists would suggest, the wrong time. When it comes to natural disasters, a country’s relative level of development matters too—a lot. Last year’s earthquakes in Haiti and Chile are a case in point. The magnitude 7.0 earthquake that struck Haiti, the hemisphere’s poorest country, killed some 200,000 people. Only 500 people died in Chile, which suffered a much stronger quake (magnitude 8.8 on the Richter scale) but whose homes and buildings were better able to resist the seismic waves. Chile is Latin America’s second-wealthiest country in per capita GDP, according to the World Bank.

"In the pictures from the flooding in El Salvador and the rest of Central America, you do not see any photos of the homes of the middle and upper classes—you see champasof scrap wood and corrugated tin," noted Tim Muth, an El Salvador-based blogger. "You do not see manicured lawns under water—you see the tiny milpas of the campesino farmer. You do not see a submerged Lexus—you see the water flowing over an ox cart."

As Muth pointed out, 12-E delivered its biggest blow to the country’s poorest, both in immediate impacts, such as mudslides and flash floods, and in longer-term effects, such as rising food prices and disease outbreaks. The flooded outhouses and contaminated wells are problems that disproportionally affect the rural poor. The homes swallowed up by killer mudslides tend not to be the mansions of the rich but rather the preciously constructed shacks of the poor who had nowhere else to build.

El Salvador "hasn’t paid close enough attention to the issue of vulnerability," Ricardo Navarro, director of the environmental nongovernmental organization (NGO) Centro Salvadoreño de Tecnología Apropiada (CESTA), told the AFP. "We get heavy rains, hurricanes, sometimes earthquakes. They cause damage, and, when that happens, we go back to talking about vulnerability. But this needs to be a government policy, to figure out what we can do to make sure these events don’t cause us such misery."