Thursday, March 22, 2012

Articles for March 21-23

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SourceMex, March 21, 2012 

  • More muscle for federal agencies
  • Drought in Texas last year a major factor
  • Deforestation reduced in butterfly habitat in Mexico
  • Limits preferable to tariffs
NotiCen, March 22, 2012

  • Eyes on the big prize
  • Accepting defeat
  • Voting for "faces"
  • "No sugar, no country"
  • Ancient cane fields, idle land, and food
NotiSur, March 23, 2012

  • Free education, teacher evaluation, and university assessment
  • Entrance exams and professional placement
  • Campesinos, indigenous, and Afro Ecuadorans discriminated against
  • The new Senderismo

Thursday, March 15, 2012

Articles for March 14-16

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SourceMex, March 14, 2012

  • Arrest violated suspect’s rights
  • Divided opinions
  • Political ramifications in France and Mexico

  • Mayor reaches out to international companies
  • Federal complaint against landfill
NotiCen, March 15, 2012

  • Presence of drug traffickers adds to problems
  • Guatemala calls for investigation

  • Chinchilla administration builds road along border
  • Tensions continue between neighboring countries
NotiSur, March 16, 2012

  • Disproportionate sentences
  • Pardon: international pressure or concerns about popularity
  • Street fights and trolls
  • Three weeks of "unacceptable repression"
  • More trouble on the horizon

Monday, March 12, 2012

Articles for March 7-9

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SourceMex, March 7, 2009
  • Large expansion of nuclear power proposed
  • Exploitation of shale-gas reserves also envisioned
  • Oil a big part of the plan
Spike in Cases of AH1N1 Virus Not Yet Affecting Tourism
  • Violence prompts US to issue travel advisories
  • AH1N1 infections vary across the country
NotiCen, March 8, 2009

  • Embracing ALBA from the start
  • What Ortega wants, Ortega gets
  • A call for changes "now, rather than later"
NotiSur, March 9, 2009
  • Costly police strikes hit several cities
  • Bahia police want extra pay for "risky" work
  • Privatization of airports another cost of the games
Argentina's Mining Sector Hit by Protests
  • Administration supports mining activities
  • Mining benefits Argentine treasury

Friday, March 2, 2012

Guatemala's New President Otto Pérez Molina Promises to End Violence and Hunger

ISSN: 1089-1560
LADB Article ID: 78487
Category/Department: Guatemala
Date: 2012-02-02
By: Louisa Reynolds

As retired Gen. Otto Pérez Molina was sworn in for a four-year period (2012-2016) on Jan. 14, he delivered a 47-minute speech in which he promised to rid Guatemala of violence and hunger and proposed "a fiscal pact to bring about economic development."

A tough stance on crime was Pérez Molina's number-one campaign promise, and he strove to portray his predecessor former President Álvaro Colom (2008-2012) as weak and ineffective in tackling urban gangs and organized crime.

When the national anthem was played, Pérez Molina clenched his fist as he placed his outstretched arm across his chest rather than placing an open hand on his heart in line with tradition. The clenched fist is the symbol of his rightist Partido Patriota (PP), and the gesture was meant to symbolize the new times of firm action against crime that his government is supposed to usher in.

The day before the ceremony, Congressman Óscar Valentín Leal Caal was gunned down along with his brother and bodyguard within blocks of the Legislative Assembly where the new parliament took office, a stark reminder of the huge challenges that lie ahead for Pérez Molina in reducing the country’s spiraling crime rate, which will require a lot more than hardline rhetoric.

Days before he was murdered, Leal had defected from the opposition Libertad Democrática Renovada (LIDER) party to Pérez Molina’s PP and had reported death threats. The PP won 58 seats in the 158-member unicameral Congress, enough to form the largest bloc but insufficient to gain the two-thirds majority needed to ensure the swift approval of the new government’s policies.

Under the Colom administration, the PP (then the main opposition party) used its muscle in Congress to block practically every single proposal put forward by the social-democrat Unidad Nacional de la Esperanza (UNE), including a much needed fiscal-reform package.

Now Pérez Molina has put forward his own fiscal-reform proposal, which is almost identical to his predecessor's, and the opposition—which comprises UNE, LIDER, and an array of minor political forces—are now bent on revenge and have already started to block the PP’s proposals. Well aware of the dangers that lie ahead, Pérez Molina has tried to lure opposition congressmen to his party.

The new Cabinet
Political parties in Guatemala tend to lack a coherent ideology and are usually a vehicle designed to take a leader or caudillo to power. The PP, the party created with the purpose of bringing Pérez Molina to power, is no exception. It is therefore hardly surprising that the new government contains a heterogeneous mix of retired army commanders, business people, and former presidential candidates who competed against Pérez Molina during the first round of elections but joined his "national crusade" when he ran against Manuel Baldizón, a populist businessman from the LIDER party, during the second round (NotiCen, Sept. 22, 2011, and Dec. 1, 2011).

Former Lt. Col. Mauricio López Bonilla, the PP’s campaign strategist and one of the president’s closest collaborators, has been appointed interior minister, and retired Gen. Ricardo Bustamante, who worked side by side with Pérez Molina during the early 1990s when the now president served as director of the G2 intelligence service, has been appointed director of the Consejo Nacional de Seguridad (CNS).

The CNS is supposedly in charge of setting out security policies and strategies and includes the president, vice president, interior, defense, and foreign ministers as well as the attorney general and director of intelligence. It was created in 2008 with the approval of the Ley Marco del Sistema Nacional de Seguridad as a means of improving coordination between the different government bureaus that deal with security and defense issues.

However, in practice, it has never delivered any results because the new structures created by the law were never given the financial resources needed. One of the PP’s campaign pledges was to rescue the CNS from oblivion and use effective intelligence to fight organized crime.

Another military figure in the new Cabinet is Ulises Noé Anzueto Girón, former director of the Adolfo V. Hall army school in Chiquimula, who has been appointed defense minister.

Former opposition candidates appointed to the new Cabinet include Harold Caballeros, former leader of the El Shaddai neopentecostal church and founder of the Visión con Valores (VIVA) party (NotiCen, Sept. 1, 2011), who now serves as foreign minister, Efraín Medina, former director of the government funded Universidad de San Carlos, VIVA’s vice presidential candidate, who now serves as minister of agriculture, and Adela de Torrebiarte, former leader of the minuscule Acción de Desarrollo Nacional (ADN) party, who now serves as commissioner for police reform.

Although the poorly funded ADN party, a newcomer during the 2011 elections (NotiCen, Aug. 18, 2011), carried little or no political weight, De Torrebiarte played an instrumental role in thwarting the presidential aspirations of former first lady Sandra Torres, Colom’s successor as leader of the UNE party, by lodging a string of appeals against her candidacy. With Torres out of the race, Pérez Molina sailed to victory.

De Torrebiarte also served briefly as interior minister in the administration of former President Óscar Berger (2004-2008), after Carlos Vielmann was forced to resign after he was accused of ordering the extrajudicial execution of suspected criminals.

The Police Reform Commission was set up under the Colom administration for the purpose of purging the police of corrupt officers and improving training and standards. Under the previous government, it was led by renowned human rights activist Helen Mack, who stated that for Guatemala to have an effective police force, the new administration must double its budget from Q2.5 billion to Q5 billion (US$322 million to US$644 million).

Pérez Molina’s Cabinet includes several women, which is unusual in a male-dominated society, rife with misogynist prejudice, where women have to overcome huge obstacles to follow a career in politics.

Roxana Baldetti, a former congresswoman and one of the founders of the PP, has become Guatemala’s first female vice president. One of Pérez Molina’s closest aides, she is one of the most influential figures in the new government.

Other female appointments include Minister of Education Cynthia del Águila, Minister for the Environment Roxana Sobenes, and Luz Lainfiesta, who will continue the social welfare programs created by Sandra Torres under a newly created Ministry for Social Development.

Friday, February 3, 2012

Peruvian President Ollanta Humala's Cabinet Shuffle Signals Shift to Right

LADB Article ID: 78473
Category/Department: Peru
Date: 2012-01-20
By: Elsa Chanduví Jaña

Just 136 days into his term, President Ollanta Humala reshuffled his Cabinet, removing the left from the center of power, a move interpreted by many as an indication that the president has given in to pressure from economic power groups.

In the new Cabinet, sworn in on Dec. 11 and headed by the former interior minister, retired Lt. Col. Óscar Valdés Dancuart, 10 new ministers replace ministers from the original Cabinet who had a greater social orientation.

For the Confederación General de Trabajadores del Perú (CGTP) and the Central Unitaria de Trabajadores del Perú (CUT Perú), naming Valdés prime minister shows that the Humala administration is moving to the right and toward militarization.

"There was an internal conflict between the different forces, between those who wanted to maintain the status quo in the service of big business and big capital and those who supported social organizations and progressive forces to make necessary changes to advance democracy," CUT president Juñio César Bazán told the daily La Primera.  "We can see that the policies of coming together and dialogue that are the mechanisms to resolve problems democratically are going to be left aside.  Valdés' record is one of being arbitrary in resolving conflicts, for example, in what happened in Cajamarca to provoke the state of emergency (NotiSur, Dec. 16, 2011)."

Bazán was referring to the social conflict that erupted in November 2011 in the department of Cajamarca, in the northern highlands, because of residents' opposition to the development of the Conga mining project.  They considered it a threat to their water supply and to the preservation of the rich ecosystems in the area.

The government response was to declare a state of emergency in Cajamarca.

The Conga conflict led then Prime Minister Salomón Lerner to tender his resignation to Humala, saying, "Our leadership style has been one of dialogue and a search for consensus, avoiding confrontation among Peruvians, and one that reaffirms our democratic life and vocation."

The head of Perú Posible, former President Alejandro Toledo (2001-2006), said that his party had decided to distance itself from Humala's party and therefore it would no longer hold any position in the executive branch of government.  Toledo explained that the alliance had broken with Humala because it did not agree "with the militarization of the government and the confrontation with social conflicts."

New scenario

While business people were pleased with the Cabinet shuffle, political analysts saw it as a turn to the right.
Humberto Speziani, head of the Confederación de Instituciones Empesariales Privadas (CONFIEP), expressed his associates' agreement with the makeup of the new Cabinet, saying, "It's the change that the country needs, less politics and better management, more efficient."

The Convención Nacional del Agro Peruano (CONVEAGRO) supported Luis Ginocchio's appointment as minister of agriculture, calling him a "great expert" who knows national agriculture.
In an interview with the daily La República, leftist sociologist and former Cabinet advisor Sinesio López said, "The government has gone from center-left to center-right.  The president decided to break with the left, whose support got him to the runoff, and, with Toledo, who in a certain way allowed him to win the runoff and become president.  But I think that the most important break is with the popular classes who voted for him."  López added, "In [Peru], those who have lost have always ended up governing."

Political analyst Carlos Meléndez agrees with López, telling La República, "Humala's election was a triumph of the left because it was a triumph of the demands that the left had wanted to raise and could not do so organically so it cut corners and did so using a military outsider."

"The issue is that in our countries elections are won with the left but are governed with the right," added Meléndez.  "Whoever is in the government palace has to look for points of support.  He cannot be supported by the social movement because it is fragmented, so he has to be supported by business people, the financial sector, the armed forces….And those people have a rightist agenda."

Writer Mario Vargas Llosa, winner of the 2010 Nobel Prize in literature, defended Humala's decision to make Cabinet changes.  "It is normal for a president to look for a more cohesive government and one that responds to a unified policy; democracy is not in danger from that," said Vargas Llosa, insisting that the Humala administration is following the "roadmap" that it laid out in the runoff campaign.

It is true that Humala never said he was either leftist or rightist.  Early on he named Luis Miguel Castilla as minister of economy.  Castilla is a 42-year-old economist who studied at Johns Hopkins University and was vice minister of finance during the administration of former President Alan García (1985-1990, 2006-2011) and earlier worked at the World Bank.  His appointment calmed business leaders and investors, who are happy that Humala has ratified Castilla in the new Cabinet.

In that sense, for analysts like Carlos Reyna, "What we have had is a clarification of the direction of the government."

Troubling changes

Lerner's resignation resulted in all officials attached to the Presidencia del Consejo de Ministros (PCM) submitting their resignations, meaning that the changes continue little by little.  The most recent change was that of Ricardo Soberón, president of the Comisión Nacional para el Desarrollo y Vida sin Drogas (DEVIDA).Primer Minister Valdés announced on Jan. 10 that the new DEVIDA president would be psychologist Carmen Masías Claux, who had been assistant director of the Centro de Información y Educación para la Prevención del Abuso de Drogas (CEDRO).

In a statement the same day, the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA) and the Transnational Institute (TNI) recognized Soberón's work at the commission.  "Soberón has played a fundamental role in promoting a debate on drug policy in Peru, proposing new and intelligent lines and incorporating key issues such as human rights and social inclusion.  In addition, he has promoted development of the new Estrategia Nacional de Lucha contra las Drogas 2012-2016, written by DEVIDA under his leadership," said the statement.
Masías Claux has said, however, that she will review the Estrategia, which was awaiting approval by the executive, "with the objective of enriching it."

Soberón was strongly criticized last September when he announced the temporary suspension of eradication of coca fields, since the plan for controlling illegal coca-leaf fields called for "bimonthly pauses" in eradication.  His decision was reversed quickly by then prime minister Lerner.

Soberón's plan to combat illegal drugs included stemming the sale of chemicals used to make cocaine and setting up controls in the customs posts through which drugs leave.  To achieve real and definitive eradications, he said, protocols of action are needed to allow safeguarding the integrity of the police, those involved in the eradication, and coca producers in the drug-trafficking areas.

For the new DEVIDA president, the policy on eradicating illegal coca fields—pushed by the US government—is not DEVIDA's responsibility but that of the Ministerio del Interior.  Masías Claux has indicated that she will put more emphasis on prevention and rehabilitation.

As if responding to Masías Claux, Soberón said in an interview published by Noticias Ser, a publication of Asociación Ser, "I wish her every success but it seems to me a mistake that the body in charge of drug policies in Peru is dedicated to just one aspect and leaves interdiction, control of supply, and eradication in the hands of the police.  To exercise leadership in such a complex area implies having the capacity to see the problem and lead the process and the debate; that is the fundamental aspect that we wanted to stress but it made many uncomfortable."

The appointment of Masías Claux, known as a Fujimorista, is seen as a step backward by those hoping that the Humala administration would apply a more effective and humane anti-drug policy.
Another minister in Humala's new Cabinet who has caused concern among many, especially those in women's organizations, is the lawyer Ana Jara, who has been appointed to head the Ministerio de la Mujer y Desarrollo Social (MIMDES), replacing Aída García Naranjo, a leftist feminist.  Jara is a member of the conservative wing of the Iglesia Evangélica and a member of the Partido Nacionalista Peruano (PNP), founded by Humala.

In an interview with journalist Beto Ortiz on the television program Abre los ojos, Jara insisted that in most rape cases, once the woman has contact with her child, "something supernatural happens," a tie that makes her love the child.  She also came out against the morning-after birth-control pill.

"We think it's necessary to call on the minister to recognize women's human rights a little more and address what her leadership role as minister of women means; if not, we're in an absolutely worrisome context," Jeanette Llaja, legal representative of the Defensa de los Derchos de la Mujer (DEMUS), told the Internet platform La Mula (lamula.pe).

Jossy Cárdenas, coordinator of the nongovernmental organization (NGO) Flora Tristan's program on sexual rights and citizenship in health, told the same news outlet, "[Jara], as a public official, has the mission to advocate for women's rights.  We must consider that a protocol set by the state indicates that one method is to provide a woman with emergency oral contraception to avoid an unwanted pregnancy.  If the state does not confront the situation of women who suffer sexual violence and become pregnant as a result, there will be no support for them."

As head of MIMDES, García Naranjo started the campaign "Stop the hand! Machismo kills and mistreats women," which provoked an intense debate in the executive and in Congress regarding whether femicide should be considered aggravated homicide.

On Dec. 1, Congress approved a law stating that "if the victim is or has been the spouse or cohabitant of the perpetrator or linked to him through a similar relationship, it will be considered femicide and will carry a penalty of at least 15 years."

Before passage of the femicide law, not all such crimes were punished equally, because the Penal Code only considered the crime aggravated homicide if the victim was a spouse or domestic partner.  On Jan. 10, the crime of femicide was incorporated into the Penal Code.

Data from the Observatorio de Criminalidad of the Ministerio Publico indicate that 245 women were killed by their partner or former partner between 2009 and 2011.

In addition, women who were allegedly victims of attempted homicide at the hand of their partner or ex-partner will now receive free medical attention.  MIMDES reported that women victims have received free medical attention in hospitals in the departments of Lima, Cusco, and Arequipa.

Still pending is approval of the Plan Nacional de Igualdad de Género 2012-2017, aimed at changing the situation of inequality—for every illiterate man there are three illiterate women, for example—and exclusion that jeopardizes women's rights.

Feminist and women's organizations fear that under the mandate of a new minister the crusade to defend women's rights initiated by her predecessor will be interrupted.

Friday, December 16, 2011

Venezuela and Colombia Mend Diplomatic, Trade Fences

ISSN: 1060-4189
LADB Article ID: 78449
Category/Department: Region
Date: 2011-12-16
By: Andrés Gaudín

With the signing of a panoply of economic and strategic accords, and without any reference to the serious problems that have plagued bilateral relations in the last three years, Colombia and Venezuela put an end to the last flashpoint of tension in the region.

In late November, Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos visited Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, and, after just 10 hours of a dialogue prepared discretely by diplomats from both countries, they reached a series of understandings that returned relations to their level in the best moments in the two South American countries' history.  More than merely closing the harmful chapter, the presidents made it clear that no real reasons existed for the estrangement, and they cleared the way for embarking on major undertakings together.  The two presidents also sent strong signals to their people and, in particular, limited the offensive of their respective political opposition, both domestic and foreign. 

Perhaps as important was the message sent to the region, showing that two presidents with conflicting ideological roots can not only dialogue and make good business deals but also take far-reaching steps in favor of integration and peaceful co-existence.

Santos and Chávez proposed resuming the common history that their two countries had built through two centuries of independence and that Colombia's ultraright ex-President Álvaro Uribe (2002-2008) destroyed in only eight years in office, especially after September 2008.

FTA will boost trade ties

The presidents signed various cooperation agreements, including a type of free-trade agreement (FTA) that sets preferential import tariffs on nearly 3,500 products.  The goal is to resume the level of trade in which Colombia always had a trade surplus—in excess of US$7 billion in 2007, only to drop to just over US$500 million after three years of strained relations.

The tariff-preferences agreement replaced the regimen in effect until 2008 for both countries as signatories of the Comunidad Andina de Naciones (CAN) protocols.  Venezuela had withdrawn from CAN in April 2006, although it maintained its rights and obligations until last April.  At that time, the Chávez administration justified its decision saying that it was a form of protest for the FTA that Uribe was negotiating with the US (NotiSur, May 5, 2006, and June 23, 2006).  It is worth noting that, paradoxically, the presidents are re-establishing relations little more than a month after the US Congress, after a four-year delay, gave the green light to the FTA with Bogotá (NotiSur, Dec. 2, 2011).

Those are, essentially, the trade agreements reached.  But other aspects of the meeting were substantially more important.  First, Santos got Venezuela to agree to finance much of the construction of a new power plant some of whose energy will go to Venezuela.  Second, Santos agreed to the sale, within six months, of 50,000 head of cattle that Venezuela will use to improve its stock, as it is doing with cattle imported from Argentina and Uruguay.  Third, the energy agreements will also affect the Colombian state oil company Ecopetrol, which will be assigned two areas for exploitation in the "mature fields" of the Venezuelan border departments of Apure and Zulia.

Pipeline from Venezuela to Colombia's coast worries US

However, of the 11 protocols signed by the presidents, the most far-reaching was the one creating a mixed agency to carry out feasibility studies prior to construction of an oil pipeline of more than 2,000 km that will join Venezuela's Franja del Orinoco—one of the world's major oil reserves—with Colombia's Pacific port of Tumaco. 

The initiative is vital for Venezuela, and Santos knows it.  It would allow Caracas to double its oil exports to China by 2014, from the current 500,000 barrels per day to 1 million bpd.  It has already silenced Chávez's internal opposition and the US government, both of whom see a great danger in the strong trade relations being developed between Venezuela and China.

Both presidents referred to the issue, which so frightens Chávez's domestic and foreign enemies, giving it the importance it deserves.  "A pipeline with these characteristics awakens the interest of the entire world," said Santos.  "How much will we save when we have the pipeline from here, crossing Colombia?" asked Chávez, noting that ships carrying Venezuelan crude to China or Japan now have to travel thousands of kilometers farther, rounding Africa to get to Asia.

New relationship benefits both Santos and Chávez

It could be said that, starting in 2002, relations between Colombia and Venezuela became relations between two people:  Uribe and Chávez, one on the extreme right and the other who calls himself socialist, two personalities as strong as they are unpredictable.  In April 2002, when the electoral campaign that brought Uribe to power ended, an attempted coup took place in Venezuela.  Chávez was thrown out of office and detained for just over a day at a military base.  Uribe celebrated that event (NotiSur, April 19, 2002).  Since then, Chávez has accused him of being a "servant of imperialism," alluding to the US.  In 2006, Chávez withdrew Venezuela from CAN and blamed Uribe, for the same reason.

The verbal confrontation continued escalating and, in March 2008, when Colombian troops entered Ecuadoran territory to pursue and kill Raúl Reyes (NotiSur, March 7, 2008), a leader of the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC), Chávez (Venezuela) broke off diplomatic relations with Uribe (Colombia). 

From then until the end of his second term in August 2010, Uribe was increasingly critical of Chávez, accusing him of turning Venezuela into a sanctuary for guerrillas and drug traffickers.  Uribe threatened to ask the Organization of American States (OAS) to expel Venezuela, although he never presented any proof or formalized a petition for expulsion (NotiSur, Nov. 20, 2009, and Aug. 6, 2010).  The alleged Colombian-guerrilla camps in Venezuela were never found.  As for drug traffickers, Venezuela has detained them at an average rate of one every two months and has always summarily extradited them to Colombia or the US.  The latest was the great "gift" with which Chávez received Santos on Nov. 28: the announcement of the detention and imminent extradition of Maximiliano "El Valenciano" Bonilla, the most important Colombian drug lord still at large.

With all that background, the crowning of this first meeting with the signing of such important agreements is a political achievement for Chávez and for Santos.  For Chávez, because, by consolidating relations with someone who only 18 months ago appeared on the horizon almost as an enemy, he has sent a strong message to the US and silenced the internal opposition that, for now, reaps more foreign than domestic support.  For Santos, because it allows him to bolster his image as a statesman in a region that looked on him with distrust—when he was defense minister, he was seen as a hawk among hawks—and because it gives him the opportunity to put distance, perhaps definitively, between himself and Uribe and to mend fences with his largest trade partner on the continent.

Santos and Chávez took on an agenda that both defined with the same word: decisive.  "Today security, drug trafficking, trade, territorial sovereignty, culture, and everything that unites us will be discussed, although some want it to separate us, our two peoples," said Santos upon arriving in Caracas. 

The two presidents both said that the meeting was occurring at a "very important" moment—another linguistic similarity, but not just that—for the process of regional integration.  It came four days after the III Cumbre de Américas Latina y el Caribe (CALC) gave way to the birth of the Comunidad de Estados Latinoamericanos y Caribeños (CELAC), an OAS without the US and Canada.

After the exchange of greetings, Chávez announced the detention of Maximiliano Bonilla, and each word, carefully chosen, seemed to be directed to both the visitor and to the internal opposition—presidential elections take place in October 2012 and politics is the burning issue in Venezuela—and to the US government, which repeats that Venezuela is a sanctuary for Colombian drug traffickers and guerrillas. 

"From no perspective have we allowed nor will we allow the violation of our sovereignty by any group, by any personality, whether from drug trafficking, the guerrillas, or whatever," he said, adding as the punch line, "We will do everything to prevent our territory from being used to conspire against or target Colombia." 

The protocol of diplomatic speeches reserved the last word for Santos, who thanked Venezuela and also responded to Uribe, saying, "My friend Chávez, today we show the world that through collaboration we are going to obtain the best results." 

Four days before Santos' trip to Caracas, Uribe, in receiving in Bogotá a delegation of the Venezuelan opposition Mesa de Unidad Democrática (MUD), continued trying to interfere in bilateral relations, advising his guests to receive Santos with a statement of repudiation.  He even told them that the Colombian president is "a useful fool for Venezuelan Marxism."

Thursday, November 3, 2011

El Salvador Swamped By Billion-Dollar Deluge

SSN: 1089-1560
LADB Article ID: 78403
Category/Department: El Salvador
Date: 2011-11-03
By: Benjamin Witte-Lebhar

The devastating tropical depression that pounded Central America for 10 days last month will not go down as the deadliest act of Mother Nature to strike disaster-prone El Salvador. But, when all is said and done, tropical storm 12-E, as it was officially called, is likely to be one of the costliest.

The massive storm rolled in off the Pacific on Oct. 9 and, in the next week and a half, caused massive flooding and killed more than 100 along the isthmus. Hardest hit was El Salvador, where 34 people died—mostly from mudslides. Flooding also destroyed crops, washed out bridges and roads, and damaged thousands of homes, directly affecting some 300,000 people, according to the UN.

Salvadoran President Mauricio Funes estimates that total losses from the deadly storm could reach US$1.5 billion, or 5% of GDP. "The damages and losses from this phenomenon vary from country to country, but, in the case of El Salvador, this is the worst disaster in recent years," Funes told his Central American counterparts during a "minisummit" held Oct. 25 in San Salvador. Also in attendance were Presidents Álvaro Colom of Guatemala, Laura Chinchilla of Costa Rica, and Porfirio Lobo from Honduras.

El Salvador has seen its share of deadly storms before. In 1998 the monstrous Hurricane Mitch tore its way through Central America, killing more than 10,000 people (NotiCen, Nov. 12, 1998). Compared with some of its neighbors, El Salvador fared relatively well in that storm. Still, Mitch killed more than 200 Salvadorans and, according to the UN’s Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), caused an estimated US$262 million in damages in the tiny country (NotiCen, Jan. 8, 1999).

Six years ago more than 1,600 Central Americans were killed by another major hurricane, Hurricane Stan, which caused nearly US$4 billion in damages across the isthmus (NotiCen, Oct. 6, 2005). Hardest hit was Guatemala. In El Salvador, the storm killed roughly 70 people and caused approximately US$112 million in damages.

If President Funes’ damages estimate is accurate, 12-E could end up costing the country far more than Mitch and Stan combined. That is because, while the tropical depression may not have delivered hurricane-force winds, it lingered longer—and dumped even more rain—than did Mitch or Stan. Mitch, the previous record holder, delivered an accumulated 34 inches (nearly three feet) of rainwater. 12-E nearly doubled that, dropping 60 inches during the course of a week and a half, according to Environment Minister Hernán Rosa Chávez.

"As of now, we’ve estimated at US$650 million the total losses in direct damages suffered. This corresponds more or less to about 3% of GDP," said President Funes. "However, it’s still premature to offer an exact figure. Once we’ve counted all the indirect damage—in infrastructure and production—this amount could rise to between 4% and 5% of GDP, which would put it in line with the first damage estimates put forth by the United Nations."

Food supply and health risks

Of particular concern is the effect the flooding had on crops. By some estimates, the rains destroyed 40% of El Salvador’s harvest. That includes valuable export crops like coffee as well as vital domestic crops like corn and beans. Already the losses have caused prices for those basic items to rise significantly. In the coming months, that will mean extra costs for those who can afford it and hunger for those who cannot.

"Before it started raining the prices were lower," Francisco Orti, a market vendor in San Salvador, told the BBC. "I would buy corn for US$14 per 100 kg. Now it costs US$25. Yes, prices have gone up."

"Before it started raining the prices were lower," Francisco Orti, a market vendor in San Salvador, told the BBC. "I would buy corn for US$14 per 100 kg. Now it costs US$25. Yes, prices have gone up."

Authorities are also apprehensive about public hygiene. More than 50,000 Salvadorans are still packed in emergency shelters. And, as ironic as it may sound considering the more than five feet of rain the country just received, some areas are lacking fresh water. El Salvador’s Ministerio de Salud (MINSAL) reports that flooding destroyed more than 1,800 wells and damaged and/or polluted 8,300 others. The rains also destroyed nearly 7,000 outdoor toilets and flooded some 22,000 others, mostly in rural areas.

"This is a complicated situation that ought to be a priority in order to prevent the outbreak of diseases in the areas that lost wells and where people don’t have anywhere to deposit their human waste," said Eduardo Espinoza, MINSAL’s vice minister.

Some money has come in from international donors. The UN promised to come up with US$15.7 million to help fund immediate relief efforts. The US government donated US$50,000 to help El Salvador’s emergency services cover fuel costs. And Taiwan and Spain have each sent aid as well, US$300,000 and US$500,000, respectively.

The Salvadoran government was no doubt hoping first lady Vanda Pignato’s trip to New York City last week would attract additional aid. The Brazilian-born Pignato, who also serves as El Salvador’s secretary for social inclusion, met personally with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and with former US President Bill Clinton, who heads the William J. Clinton Foundation, a charitable organization.

But even a hefty donation by the former US president is unlikely to meet all of El Salvador’s post-storm needs. Nor will it do much to mitigate the country’s permanent vulnerability to natural disasters of this kind. 12-E, after all, may be the costliest recent disaster in El Salvador, but it is by no means an isolated case. Nor will it be the last act of Mother Nature compelling Salvadoran authorities, hat-in-hand, to once again turn to the international community for help.

"The mayor of San Julián said something very revealing this week: 'The world stopped noticing how screwed we are.' What’s certain about this situation is that it’s very recurrent. The countries that tend to help us are sick of doing so," columnist Marvin Aguilar wrote in a recent issue of La Página.

A question of vulnerability

ECLAC estimates that, between 1998 and 2008, nearly a quarter of Latin America’s natural-disaster-related deaths occurred in Central America, home to just 7% of the region’s population. El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras are among the world’s 10-most-vulnerable countries, according to ECLAC.

Part of the problem is geography. An isthmus that delicately divides two of the world’s great oceans, the area is prone to large tropical storms—from both sides. El Salvador and its neighbors are also highly seismic countries. Dotted with volcanoes, they experience frequent—and sometimes deadly—earthquakes.

Part of the problem is geography. An isthmus that delicately divides two of the world’s great oceans, the area is prone to large tropical storms—from both sides. El Salvador and its neighbors are also highly seismic countries. Dotted with volcanoes, they experience frequent—and sometimes deadly—earthquakes.

Climate-change scientists predict that rising global temperatures will make Central America more vulnerable still. For many observers, last month’s 12-E is evidence that global weather patterns are already shifting. Calling the deluge "unprecedented," Environment Minister Rosa Chávez said El Salvador "marks a point where climate change is erupting."

But El Salvador’s vulnerability is not purely a matter of being in the wrong place or, as climate scientists would suggest, the wrong time. When it comes to natural disasters, a country’s relative level of development matters too—a lot. Last year’s earthquakes in Haiti and Chile are a case in point. The magnitude 7.0 earthquake that struck Haiti, the hemisphere’s poorest country, killed some 200,000 people. Only 500 people died in Chile, which suffered a much stronger quake (magnitude 8.8 on the Richter scale) but whose homes and buildings were better able to resist the seismic waves. Chile is Latin America’s second-wealthiest country in per capita GDP, according to the World Bank.

"In the pictures from the flooding in El Salvador and the rest of Central America, you do not see any photos of the homes of the middle and upper classes—you see champasof scrap wood and corrugated tin," noted Tim Muth, an El Salvador-based blogger. "You do not see manicured lawns under water—you see the tiny milpas of the campesino farmer. You do not see a submerged Lexus—you see the water flowing over an ox cart."

As Muth pointed out, 12-E delivered its biggest blow to the country’s poorest, both in immediate impacts, such as mudslides and flash floods, and in longer-term effects, such as rising food prices and disease outbreaks. The flooded outhouses and contaminated wells are problems that disproportionally affect the rural poor. The homes swallowed up by killer mudslides tend not to be the mansions of the rich but rather the preciously constructed shacks of the poor who had nowhere else to build.

El Salvador "hasn’t paid close enough attention to the issue of vulnerability," Ricardo Navarro, director of the environmental nongovernmental organization (NGO) Centro Salvadoreño de Tecnología Apropiada (CESTA), told the AFP. "We get heavy rains, hurricanes, sometimes earthquakes. They cause damage, and, when that happens, we go back to talking about vulnerability. But this needs to be a government policy, to figure out what we can do to make sure these events don’t cause us such misery."